“And now, the end is near;
And so I face the final curtain” - Frank Sinatra, "My Way"
As the 2020 fantasy football regular season draws to a close, I hope you did it your way. Sure, we all have our misses, but you gotta love the hits too! This is supposed to be fun, remember?
This week’s version of Wire Fire will have two distinct purposes. First, for those with a playoff spot locked up, let’s focus on the free agents that have the best matchups in weeks 14, 15, and 16. I am going to weight week 14 the heaviest of the three at 39%, followed by week 15 at 33%, and finally week 16 at 28%. The championship game may seem to be the most important, but if you don’t get there, it doesn’t matter how good you “would have” performed.
Second, we’ll look at the players with the best matchups for week 13. Again, you can’t boast about how good you “would have” been in the playoffs if you don’t get in!
Take a special note folks and remember for 2021 that the pool of eligible running backs is awfully shallow. Roster them early in the year and hold on to them! Tight ends are similar with a much smaller allotment of productive players. Good luck!
Player eligibility is based on the rostered average of less than 45% from three fantasy websites (Yahoo!, CBSsports, & ESPN) and their rostered average is in parentheses. Players are listed by value.
1. Philip Rivers (33%): Quietly, the Colts have averaged 35 points per game in their last 5. Over that time, Rivers has 9 TDs and 270+ yards. Don’t worry about an arbitrary period of games either. Six games back, Rivers had 3 TD passes and the Colts scored 27 against Cincy. * Questionable (toe)
2. Andy Dalton (13%): Veteran with good skill players. You could do worse!
3. Daniel Jones (39%): This is tough because we aren’t sure what that sore hammy will do. Will it limit him? If he cannot run as much, his value definitely decreases. * DNP on Wednesday (hammy)
4. Baker Mayfield (33%): 3 of the next 4 weeks are against mediocre pass defenses. Unfortunately, the Browns run the heck out of the ball. Mayfield takes occasional shots using play action… that’s about it.
5. Alex Smith (13%): Similar to Dalton, another experienced veteran.
6. Drew Lock (14%): Assuming Lock is ready for the playoffs, this may not be a bad roll of the dice. They certainly let Lock throw and he has weapons.
Week 13 QB rentals
Philip Rivers at Houston
Daniel Jones at Seattle, if healthy
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Cincy, if Tua doesn’t return
Baker Mayfield at Tennessee
Mitch Trubisky vs. Detroit, if he is still starting (Foles still nursing his hip injury)
Nick Mullens vs. Buffalo
Mike Glennon or Gardner Minshew at Minnesota. Questions about Minshew’s health. Even if he is healthy, does Glennon still get the start after a decent showing in week 12 without Chark.
Playoff Running Backs
1. Cam Akers (35%): His touches haven’t increased that much, but he is starting to show his ability to provide explosive plays. Highest upside among the available backs.
2. Frank Gore (29%): Enough old jokes, the guy had 21 touches last week! Heck of a playoff schedule though. Doubtful the Jets will be running that much in weeks 14 thru 16. Plus, Perine is scheduled to return from IR on week 15 (ankle).
3. Carlos Hyde (38%): He gets a decent share of carries even as RB2. Weeks 15 and 16 are brutal.
4. Devontae Booker (16%): He will get you a few points, but don’t expect much more. He gets this spot due the Raiders relatively good playoff schedule. If Jacobs has more trouble with the ankle, Booker may be quite a value.
5. Kerryon Johnson (24%): A roll of the dice here considering the presence of Peterson and the probable return of Swift. But if the Lions want to see the young guys play, he will get touches.
Week 13 RB rentals
Devontae Booker at Jets, Jacobs probably misses due to his ankle injury
Frank Gore vs the porous Las Vegas run defense
Carlos Hyde vs Giants
Kerryon Johnson at Chicago, is a tough matchup but will get touches if Swift misses again
Boston Scott at Green Bay, expecting this to get out of hand, Scott will get garbage time touches
Jeff Wilson vs. Buffalo, keep an eye on Tevin Coleman’s health. With Coleman still out in week 12, Wilson was able to get a dozen carries
Playoff Wide Receivers
1. T.Y. Hilton (42%): A very slow start to the season. But as you read above with Rivers, the Colts offense is producing 35 points per game over their last 5. Hilton’s production has increased as well. Indy has a solid playoff schedule.
2. Breshad Perriman (16%): Adding Darnold back into the mix makes this risky, but he has been rather productive. The Jets passing game faces a roller coaster ride of a schedule during the fantasy playoffs.
* Questionable (shoulder)
3. Gabriel Davis (3%): John Brown is on IR for at least the next three weeks. Given the opportunity, Davis has put up surprising numbers.
4. Keke Coutee (2%): Fuller, Cobb, and Stills are gone. That leaves Coutee as WR2 with Watson throwing him the ball. The targets will be there.
5. Josh Reynolds (11%): Consistent low-end production with a good playoff schedule. Meh.
6. Tim Patrick (30%): It is a mess in Denver and their schedule is brutal, but Patrick gets targets.
7. Isaiah Coulter (0%): What? Who? DeShawn Watson’s starting wideout for the remainder of the season. An argument could be made that he will end up as their WR1. Come on, you know you wanna!
8. Damiere Byrd (4%): A hit or miss performer for New England with a tough playoff schedule.
9. Denzel Mims (10%): Another Jet. I get it. But beggars can’t be choosers.
10. Jalen Reagor (29%): You would think they would call more plays for him. You’d think he would have some big plays on his resume by now. But Reagor is worth a shot at this point in the list.
Week 13 Wide Receiver rentals
T.Y. Hilton at Houston
Breshad Perriman vs. the Raiders
Josh Reynolds at Arizona in what could be shootout
Laviska Sheanult at Minnesota
Keke Coutee vs. Indy
Gabriel Davis at San Fran
Henry Ruggs at the Jets, perhaps this is his breakout game
Playoff Tight Ends
1. Dalton Schultz (39%): Not a bad playoff schedule and target share.
2. Trey Burton (32%): Last two games Burton has averaged 5.5 targets and a touchdown. Not bad for a position that severely lacks producers.
3. Jordan Akins (7%): One of the more frustrating tight ends to follow. Houston pretty much ignores the position. However, with the loss of 3 of their top 4 receivers, perhaps this is the time.
4. Jordan Reed (25%): Not a terrible option, but the QB situation is not helping.
5. Richard Rodgers (5%): Even without the hail mary, Rodgers produces better than the numbers 2, 3 and 4 on this list. However, Ertz may return and push Rodgers back to the sideline. Ertz has been practicing on a limited basis.
6. Kyle Rudolph (9%): Over the last 4 games, he has been targeted an average of 5 times.
Week 13 Tight End Rentals
Trey Burton at Houston… sense a theme with the Colts?
Dalton Schultz at Baltimore, not as bad of a matchup as you might think
Kyle Rudolph vs. Jacksonville, if Irv Smith misses again, 6+ targets is a safe bet
Jordan Reed vs. Buffalo, where the Bills are terrible against tight ends but Mullens is the QB
Thanks for reading! We hope this helps you lock up your spot in the playoffs, or solidify your playoff seeding! For more helpful fantasy football articles, visit fantasyfootballclinic.com. For daily fantasy advice, you can follow @ClinicFantasy on Twitter! Good luck! We hope you did it your way this season.