Tom Brady Under 300.5 (Pass YDS) -112
This week against the Rams, Tampa Bay most certainly has their work cut out for them. After an embarrassing loss to the Saints, the Buccaneers looked good in a bounce back win against Carolina. In that win, Brady threw for 341 yards, his second highest total all season. However, it won’t be that easy this week facing a Rams defense ranked #2 in total defense and #3 against the pass. Brady has only thrown over the 300 yard mark three times this season, and against a potent Rams defense I see Brady falling short of the mark once again. It scares me betting against one of the best ever, but in the saga between Tom and time, the latter may be pulling ahead.
Justin Herbert Over 277 (Pass YDS) -112
This season Justin Herbert has proven enough in my eyes to be the Rookie of the Year. From his arm strength to his decision making, Herbert has proved himself as a very competent quarterback. This season Herbert has only passed below the 277 yard mark twice, and one of the two performances was last week. So far this season the Jets have allowed the 3rd most passing yards of any team in the NFL, with teams averaging 282 yards per game through the air. With the offense healthy, I see Herbert dominating on Sunday with a bounce back performance against a Jets team they should slaughter.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 (TD Pass) +105
In his first three starts of the season Tua has looked extremely impressive. Over the course of his first three starts, the first year quarterback has thrown 5 touchdowns and even more impressively has 3 wins, two of which came as an underdog. This week Tua will face a middle of the road Broncos defense that made Derek Carr look like Joe Montatna. The Broncos are also giving up some of the most points per game around the league, averaging around 28 points. In addition, the Broncos secondary is also banged up with players like Bryce Callahan listed as questionable. This week I think Tua continues to play lights out and easily puts up a pair of touchdowns against the Broncos.
Jake Luton Under 227.5 (Pass YDS) -167
For the third week in a row, Jake Luton will do his best to fill in for an injured Gardner Minshew. In his first career start Luton looked impressive, throwing the ball for over 300 yards with a touchdown as well. However, last week he definitely took some steps back throwing for just under 170 yards, with a passer rating of just 62.7. So which Luton will we get this week? Let’s look at the matchup. First, it’s important to keep in mind that his 300 plus yard passing performance was against a Texans team ranked 4th to last in total defense. Against a better defense in the Green Bay Packers, Luton was much less impressive. So what about this week? Well the young quarterback will have his biggest test so far against a punishing Steelers defense that is averaging 211 yards through the air per game. For me it’s a no brainer, I feel very comfortable with rolling with the under in this spot.
Cam Newton Over 42.5 (Rush YDS) +101
This year Cam Newton has been as explosive on the ground as he is through the air. It seems as though almost every game, Newton has made an impact on the game by running the ball, especially when in the red zone.Newton has been relatively limited on the ground for the first time in back to back weeks all season after rushing for only 21 against Baltimore and 16 against New York (Jets). This week Cam is prime for a come back performance on the ground against an abysmal Houston run defense. Currently, Houston is ranked last against the run, letting up an average of 167 yards per game. This week I feel fully confident in Newton being able to capitalize on the Texans defense and put an end to his two game slide.
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