Brandon Allen Under 210.5 (Pass YDS) -143
Last week in his first start as a Bengal, against an average passing defense in the New York Giants, Allen was only able to muster a lousy 136 yards through the air. This week against a Dolphins defense who is a tad bit more stingy against the pass, I see Allen easily going under. Last year in his three starts for the Broncos, Allen was only able to garner one game over his passing total, with the addition of last week, Allen’s total passing yards has gone under in his last 3 of 4 games. Expect Allen to improve slightly, but not completely, I am predicting 180 passing.
Drew Lock Over 237.5 (Pass YDS) -114
It’s no secret that the Broncos historically crumble against the Chiefs. The last time the Broncos were able to get a win over Kansas City came early in 2015, a streak lasting 5 years and 10 games. Most of the Broncos' problems against the Chiefs stem from poor offensive play, however there are a few factors this week that should lead to an improvement offensively. For starters, Lock was able to throw over the 237 yard mark in his first matchup with the Chiefs this year. In fact, the quarterback has thrown for over 237 yards in his last 5 starts. Another huge factor is weather; this will be the first time Drew Lock plays in Kansas City without the presence of snow. Finally, after not being able to play last week due to Covid-19 contract tracing, I believe that Lock will come out firing with a chip on his shoulder, after the backlash that he took from the media. All of these combined factors make me side with the over in this matchup.
Alvin Kamara Under 58.5 (Rush YDS) -118
This year Alvin Kamara has only rushed over 58.5 yards three times! It seems shocking, but a lot of Kamara’s production this season has come in the short passing game, similar to Christian McCaffery. With the emergence of Latavious Murray’s success over the latter half of the season, and the insertion of Taysom Hill at quarterback, Kamara will see fewer opportunities on the ground. Last time the two teams matched up, Kamara was only able to rush for 45 yards, and with the Falcons playing extremely well against the run recently, I see Kamara easily going under 58.5.
Devontae Booker (Any Time Scorer) -143
With the absence of Josh Jacobs, the door is wide open for Booker to have a huge day against the Jets. This season Booker has proved himself to be a legit #2 back in the NFL, while splitting offensive series with Jacobs. Last week the Raiders fell behind early to the Falcons and had to play catch up most of the game, leading to an abandonment of the run. This week I think that the Raiders come back, regroup, and establish the run early against an awful Jets defense.
Taysom Hill Over 189.5 (Pass YDS) -114
When the two teams matched up in Week 11, Hill was able to show why he is said to be the heir to the throne in New Orleans. Even though he didn’t pass for a touchdown, he was able to move the ball efficiently down the field. Against the Broncos Hill was far less impressive, but I believe the offense played down to the Broncos because of the Covid limitations the Broncos were faced with. Even though I like Taysom Hill, I like the over mostly because of how poor the Falcons secondary is, arguably the worst in the NFL. For these reasons I am fading the Falcons defense and rocking with Taysom Hill.
If you enjoyed reading this article follow me on Twitter @wagenrage! I post daily predictions against the spread, as well as more player props.
I also host an NFL show on Youtube breaking down matchups and answering questions, subscribe here: