Josh Allen Over 1.5 (Pass TDS) -200
Rolling into December the Bills are circling the wagon like no other team in the NFL, led by the excellent quarterback play of Josh Allen. This week I love for Allen to continue his December hot streak and throw over 2 touchdown passes against the Broncos. While the Broncos do rank inside the top 10 defending the pass, a plethora of injuries to the defensive secondary will surely hold them back. With AJ Bouye suspended and Duke Dawson placed on injured reserve, the Broncos will be forced to start the rookie Ojemudia, alongside another relatively unproven corner in Nate Hairston. Given the healthy slate on the Bills end offensively, give me the over on Allen’s passing touchdowns.
Lamar Jackson Over 62.5 (Rush YDS) -112
With the Ravens on the bubble of making the playoffs, the team is in need of a streak down the stretch to ensure their postseason hopes. Over the past two weeks Jackson has contributed significantly to those hopes, as it appears he has snapped his mid-season lull and is ready committed to punching his ticket to the playoffs. The formula is simple, when Jackson runs the rock, the Ravens win. Against a Jaguars defense that ranks third to last in the league defending the run, I like Lamar Jackson’s over on rushing yards.
Jerry Jeudy Over 41.5 (Rec YDS) -112
Since playing the Saints in week 12 Jeudy’s target share and overall production has declined, however I do not see this trend continuing to last. After using their first round pick on Jeudy earlier this year, and witnessing his talent unfold throughout the season, the Broncos can not afford to continue to keep him out of the game plan. With the Bills defensive secondary just middle of the road, and Drew Lock looking better as the weeks progress, I think Jeudy is able to bust his rookie slump.
Baker Mayfield Over 224.5 (Pass YDS) -112
Has Baker silenced the haters? I don’t know, maybe… but boy do the stats look good! The Browns are rolling for the first time in twenty years and most of that can be attributed to stable play at the quarterback position. With that being said, over the last few weeks Baker has been more than stable, hitting the over on his passing total each of the last three weeks. While the Giants are pretty solid against the run, against the pass they fare extremely average. With the addition of cornerback Darnay Holmes sidelined with injury, I think Mayfield continues to roll in his hot streak.
Jonathan Taylor Over 17.5 (Rec YDS) -124
Finally in the latter half of the season the Colts are utilizing Jonathan Taylor’s full potential. In an offense that loves to get the ball to their running backs in different ways, I love Taylor’s over on receiving yards. Along with Taylor’s excellent play recently, the Texans are lackluster against the pass, including against running backs. Last time the two teams matched up, Taylor was able to earn over 40 yards receiving, a trend I see continuing into week 15.
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